India's artillery upgrade remains in limbo

SOURCE-JANES.COM

The Indian Army's long-overdue plans to upgrade around 390 Bofors FH-77B 155 mm 39-calibre howitzers to 155 mm 45-calibre, stand jeopardised due primarily to the 'over-ambitious' qualitative requirements (QRs) drawn up by the artillery directorate for the retrofit.

The army first acquired the howitzers in 1987 and currently has a total of 410 in its inventory. The upgrade is intended to enhance the range of the guns, and includes replacing the gun barrel, breech block, strengthening the undercarriage and fitting the howitzers with a state-of-the-art sighting system, allowing them to fire heavier ordnance.

"Some of the upgrade QRs are unrealistic for these 25-year-old guns, demanding even more capability than newer howitzers," said an armament industry source associated with the project.

The army, he declared, was unwilling to revise or modify the request for proposals (RfP), even though many in the artillery directorate conceded that the QRs were unrealistic because only the defence minister had the authority to effect a change in the tender and they were circumspect about approaching him.

An earlier, similar RfP issued by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in 2006 lapsed unfulfilled. It required competing vendors such as BAE Systems (which now owns Bofors AB), the FH 77B's original equipment manufacturer (OEM), private defence contractor Tata of Mumbai and the state-owned Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) to develop an upgraded prototype howitzer within a year

US 'biggest' threat say Pakistanis

SOURCE - ALJAZERA
A survey commissioned by Al Jazeera in Pakistan has revealed a widespread disenchantment with the United States for interfering with what most people consider internal Pakistani affairs.

The polling was conducted by Gallup Pakistan - a separate organisation affiliated with the US-based Gallup Inc - and more than 2,600 people took part.

Interviews were conducted across the political spectrum in all four of the country's provinces, and represented men and women of every economic and ethnic background.

When respondents were asked what they consider to be the biggest threat to the nation of Pakistan, 11 per cent of the population identified the Taliban fighters, who have been blamed for scores of deadly bomb attacks across the country in recent years.

Another 18 per cent said that they believe that the greatest threat came from neighbouring India, which has fought three wars with Pakistan since partition in 1947.

But an overwhelming number, 59 per cent of respondents, said the greatest threat to Pakistan right now is, in fact, the US, a donor of considerable amounts of military and development aid.

Tackling the Taliban

The resentment was made clearer when residents were asked about the Pakistan's military efforts to tackle the Taliban.

Keeping with recent trends a growing number of people, now 41 per cent, supported the campaign.

About 24 per cent of people remained opposed, while another 22 per cent of Pakistanis remained neutral on the question.

A recent offensive against Taliban fighters in the Swat, Lower Dir and Buner districts of North West Frontier Province killed at least 1,400 fighters, according to the military, but also devastated the area and forced two million to leave their homes.

The military has declared the operation a success, however, some analysts have suggested that many Taliban fighters simply slipped away to other areas, surviving to fight another day.

When people were asked if they would support government-sanctioned dialogue with Taliban fighters if it were a viable option the numbers change significantly.

Although the same 41 per cent said they would still support the military offensive, the number of those supporting dialogue leaps up to 43 per cent.

So clearly, Pakistanis are, right now, fairly evenly split on how to deal with the Taliban threat.

Drone anger

However, when asked if they support or oppose the US military's drone attacks against what Washington claims are Taliban and al-Qaeda targets, only nine per cent of respondents reacted favourably.

A massive 67 per cent say they oppose US military operations on Pakistani soil.



Forty-one per cent of Pakistanis say they support the offensive against the Taliban


"This is a fact that the hatred against the US is growing very quickly, mainly because of these drone attacks," Makhdoom Babar, the editor-in-chief of Pakistan's The Daily Mail newspaper, said.

"Maybe the intelligence channels, the military channels consider it productive, but for the general public it is controversial ... the drone attacks are causing collateral damage," he told Al Jazeera.

Nearly 500 people, mostly suspected Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters, are believed to have been killed in about 50 US drone attacks since August last year, according to intelligence agents, local government officials and witnesses.

Washington refuses to confirm the raids, but the US military in neighbouring Afghanistan and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) are the only forces operating in the area that are known to have the technology.

The government in Islamabad formally opposes the attacks saying that they violate Pakistani sovereignty and cause civilian casualties which turn public opinion against efforts to battle the Taliban.

The consensus of opinion in opposition to US military involvement in Pakistan is notable given the fact that on a raft of internal issues there is a clear level of disagreement, something which would be expected in a country of this size.

Pakistani leadership

When asked for their opinions on Asif Ali Zardari, the Pakistani president, 42 per cent of respondents said they believed he was doing a bad job. Around 11 per cent approved of his leadership, and another 34 per cent had no strong opinion either way.

That pattern was reflected in a question about Zardari's Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

Respondents were asked if they thought the PPP was good or bad for the country.

About 38 per cent said the PPP was bad for the country, 20 per cent believed it was good for the country and another 30 per cent said they had no strong opinion.

Respondents were even more fractured when asked for their views on how the country should be led.

By far, the largest percentage would opt for Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) party, as leader. At least 38 per cent backed him to run Pakistan.

Last month, the Pakistani supreme court quashed Sharif's conviction on charges of hijacking, opening the way for him to run for political office again.

Zardari 'unpopular'

Zardari, the widower of assassinated former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, received only nine per cent support, while Reza Gilani, Pakistan's prime minister, had the backing of 13 per cent.



The survey suggests Sharif is Pakistan's most popular politician by some distance [AFP]
But from there, opinions vary greatly. Eight per cent of the population would support a military government, 11 per cent back a political coalition of the PPP and the PML-N party.

Another six per cent throw their support behind religious parties and the remaining 15 per cent would either back smaller groups or simply do not have an opinion.

Babar told Al Jazeera that Zardari's unpopularity was understandable given the challenges that the country had faced since the September 11, 2001 attacks on the US.

"Any president in Pakistan would be having the same popularity that President Zardari is having, because under this situation the president of Pakistan has to take a lot of unpopular decisions," he said.

"He is in no position to not take unpopular decisions that are actually in the wider interests of the country, but for common people these are very unpopular decisions."

FOR COMPLETE POLL RESULTS http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/08/2009888238994769.html

UK 'may have 40-year Afghan role'

SOURCE-BBC NEWS
The UK's commitment to Afghanistan could last for up to 40 years, the incoming head of the Army has said.

Gen Sir David Richards, who takes over on 28 August, told the Times that "nation-building" would last decades.

Troops will be required for the medium term only, but the UK will continue to play a role in "development, governance [and] security sector reform," he said.

Shadow defence minister Gerald Howarth said the UK had to be there long-term to achieve its objectives.

Gen Richards commanded 35,000 troops from 37 nations when he was head of Nato's International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan between May 2006 and February 2007.

He will take over from Gen Sir Richard Dannatt as the UK's chief of the general staff.

'Campaign winnable'

Gen Richards' comments came as it emerged that three servicemen, from the Parachute Regiment, had been killed north of Lashkar Gah, in Helmand province, southern Afghanistan, on Thursday afternoon.

Their deaths - in an attack on a Jackal armoured vehicle which left a colleague critically injured - take to 195 the number of British troops killed in Afghanistan since 2001.

The Army has suffered its heaviest losses of the entire campaign in recent weeks, but its soon-to-be chief said he strongly believed the campaign was "winnable".

"Demanding, certainly, but winnable," he said.

It is not just reconstruction; jobs and simple governance that works are key

Gen Sir David Richards


Profile: Gen Sir David Richards
He added: "The end will be difficult to define; it won't be neat and clear-cut like the end of some old-fashioned inter-state war might have been."

He said it would take "a long time and considerable investment", adding: "We must remember, though, that we are not trying to turn Afghanistan into Switzerland."

Gen Richards said great efforts must be made to expand the Afghan National Army and build up the police force - only then could the UK's military role "decline".

Equipment

"I believe that the UK will be committed to Afghanistan in some manner - development, governance, security sector reform - for the next 30 to 40 years," he said.

"It is not just reconstruction; jobs and simple governance that works are key, and there has to be a strong reconciliation element to the latter."

For the Tories, Mr Howarth said: "It would not be fair to those who have given their lives for this conflict to say, 'actually, we need to find out how we can scuttle out of here as quickly as possible'."

However, he said the general was not suggesting maintaining the current level of operations for the next 40 years.

Gen Dannatt has called for the government to commit more troops and equipment to Afghanistan, but Gen Richards said he would not be presenting a "shopping list" to ministers.

However, he said the Army and the government needed to "continue to respond flexibly and quickly to the evolving requirements of our campaign in Afghanistan".

Labour MP Mike Gapes, chairman of the Commons foreign affairs committee, said there were "serious questions" to be asked about why other Nato countries were "not pulling their weight".

Mr Gapes asked: "Why are only a few countries taking the major burden of this?

"That is the big issue for the international community - not just for the UK."

BAITULLAHS MEN UNITED NO MORE- ONE OF THE PROBABLE SUCESSOR DEAD.

SOURCE-DAWN.COM
The Pakistani government has received reports that shooting broke out between two rivals for the leadership of the Pakistani Taliban, and one of them may have been killed, the interior minister said on Saturday.
Pakistani news channels were carrying unconfirmed reports that Hakimullah Mehsud, one of the movement's most powerful commanders, had been killed at a shura, or council meeting, held to decide who would succeed slain leader Baitullah Mehsud.

'The infighting was between Wali-ur-Rehman and Hakimullah Mehsud,' Interior Minister Rehman Malik told Reuters.

'We have information that one of them has been killed. Who was killed we will be able to say later after confirming.'

A Taliban official in South Waziristan, where the meeting took place, told Reuters the government had fabricated reports of fighting between the different factions.

Noor Said, who had been a deputy spokesman under Baitullah, said: 'There was no fighting in the shura. Both Wali-ur-Rehman and Hakimullah are safe and sound.'

Western governments with troops in Afghanistan are watching to see if any new Pakistani Taliban leader would shift focus from fighting the Pakistani government and put the movement's weight behind the Afghan insurgency led by Mullah Mohammad Omar.

An intelligence officer in South Waziristan said he had reports that Hakimullah Mehsud died in the shooting after heated exchanges between the rivals at the meeting held around 1030 GMT.

'According to reports Wali-ur-Rehman fired and killed Hakimullah Mehsud,' the official said.

State-run Pakistan Television (PTV) said there were reports that both leaders might have been killed in a shoot-out.

The shura was called in Taliban-controlled territory in Waziristan, a northwest tribal region bordering Afghanistan.

DRONE ATTACK

Earlier in the day Hakimullah Mehsud had telephoned journalists to deny that Baitullah Mehsud had been killed in a missile strike by US drone aircraft on Wednesday.

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said on Friday the government was 'pretty certain' that Mehsud perished in the missile blitz on Wednesday that also killed his second wife, a brother, seven bodyguards and destroyed his car.

Some analysts had anticipated the Pakistani Taliban's leadership would be split over who should become the next chief and the denial aimed to buy time until a new leader was chosen.

Hakimullah, who controls fighters in the Orakzai, Kurram and Khyber tribal regions, is regarded as one of the leading contenders to replace Baitullah Mehsud, who had a $5 million US bounty on his head.

Wali-ur-Rehman is another shura member and a former spokesman for Baitullah.

Qureshi had anticipated the death of Mehsud would leave a void in the Taliban movement that could lead to divisions.

'With him gone, I think there is going to be an internal struggle and disarray in their ranks, I think it will set in demobilisation. It is a great success for the forces that are fighting extremism and terrorism in Pakistan,' Qureshi told BBC radio late on Friday

HOW A SON OF PESH-IMAM BECAME PAKISTANS MOST WANTED MAN-STORY OF BAITULLAH

SOURCE-DAWN.COM
Born in 1972, Baitullah Mehsud had to suffer an early childhood dislocation when he moved, along with his father, from his Nargosha village to Landi Dhok in Bannu, close to the South Waziristan tribal region.

His father served as a Pesh-Imam (prayer leader) in a mosque in Landi Dhok before moving to Miramshah in North Waziristan and there also he led prayers in a mosque. Baitullah got a little religious education in Miramshah’s Pepal Madressah.

And it was in Miramshah where Baitullah is believed to have come into contact with Taliban militants who persuaded him to join them in the fight against the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.He fought well in Afghanistan and established himself as a fighter, a senior security officer, who himself belongs to the Mehsud tribe, recalled.

Baitullah returned to his native South Waziristan after the United States invaded Afghanistan and toppled the Taliban regime in November 2001.

He shot to prominence after the notorious Taliban commander in South Waziristan, Nek Mohammad, was killed in a missile attack in Wana in June 2004. But he keep a low profile when the one-legged former Guantanamo detainee, Abdullah Mehsud, reined supreme in the Mehsud territory.

His real chance to claim leadership came soon after Abdullah kidnapped two Chinese engineers in October 2004. Miffed that the fiery militant commander had picked up an unnecessary fight with Pakistan’s security forces, a shura of the local Taliban removed Abdullah Mehsud and handed over the command of the Taliban in South Waziristan to Baitullah.

Known for his cool-headedness, the military hailed Baitullah’s ascension, called him a soldier of peace and signed the Sara Rogha agreement with him in February 2005.

The peace agreement collapsed in a matter of months, with both sides accusing each other of violating its terms, leading to the beginning of hostilities that took a huge toll.

Baitullah proved himself a tough warrior, taking due advantage of a territory that was native and treacherous, by defeating two successive military operations.

He catapulted to the limelight when he took hundreds of Pakistani soldiers hostage in August 2007. It was perhaps because of this singular feat that militants in the length and breadth of Fata at a 20-member shura meeting chose him as leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan in December 2007.

Baitullah unleashed a wave of suicide bombings in Pakistan. Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani once told journalists that the TTP leader was behind almost all attacks inside Pakistan.

According to a UN report, Baitullah was behind 80 per cent of the suicide bombings in Afghanistan.

He gained in stature to the extent that The Time magazine rated him as one of the 100 most influential people in the world. Not to be left behind, The Newsweek described him as more dangerous than Osama bin Laden.

Accounts vary about the actual strength of his force, but intelligence agencies put the number of his fighting force at 20,000 to 30,000, including 2,000 to 3,000 foreign militants, mostly of Central Asian origin – Uzbeks and Chechens.

He ran a number of training camps, including those indoctrinating suicide bombers – a weapon – he once called his own atom bombs.

A short-stocky man, Baitullah suffered from diabetes that once prompted reports of serious illness and then death in late 2008. Much to the disappointment of many, the man bounced back to host a big feast of lamb and rice to celebrate his second marriage to a daughter of the local influential tribal leader, Malik Ikramuddin. He, however, remained issueless.

According to one account, he was also the ghost writer of a book in Urdu, Carvan-i-Baitullah Mehsud, using the pen-name of Abu Munib. In the book, he described his ideology, war strategy and details pertaining to his movement.

The United States had announced a $5 million bounty on Baitullah’s head in March this year. But it took Pakistan several months before making up its mind to declare him as Pakistan’s enemy number one and announce a reward of Rs50 million for his capture, dead or alive, in June.

Trouble began to emerge for the TTP leader when the government announced the launching of a military operation against him in June. No ground offensive was launched and the government changed its tactics to use air strikes and artillery, besides imposing an effective economic blockade to stop fuel and food supply to the area. Thousands of Mehsuds fled the area.

He was under pressure both from within his own Mehsud clan, which wanted him to ease it off with the government, and his commanders who egged him on to fight off the military. For the first time, his decision and thought-making process was shaky, an official familiar with the situation in the area said.

He wouldn’t stay in one place for two months and would constantly change places. His nerves were on edge, he remarked.

It is useless to run away. I know some day, one day they will come and get me, one senior official quoted Baitullah as telling a fellow Mehsud tribesman.

Little did the man, described by a senior security official as someone with fox-like instincts to sense danger, suspect that he was exposing himself to a missile target by relaxing with his younger wife on a roof in Zanghara, South Waziristan

US Assassination Squad revealed

SOURCE: RUSSIA TODAY “Targeted assassinations were part of the [US] ‘Defensive Intervention’ program,” says investigative journalist Wayne Madsen, referring to details of an alleged JSOC Assassination Ring revealed by Pentagon officials. Detail report in the video below.

Where now for Pakistan's Taliban?

SOURCE: BBC NEWS
Baitullah Mehsud, the feared militant commander in Pakistan, appears to have ended his career in much the same way as he had started - by keeping a low profile.

Speculation about whether he is dead or alive is rife across Pakistan - from the mountainous tribal territory of South Waziristan to the capital Islamabad. But the ambiguity surrounding his reported death may well persist. Nobody has as yet been willing or able to confirm his demise. We do know that the missile which struck the remote corner of South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud's tribal stronghold, killed one of his wives. But only days later did news trickle out that the Taliban commander may have perished in the attack too.

Rapid response

The Taliban have a strategy of blocking traffic to any area where missiles hit, so that the number of casualties and the identities of the dead remain unknown. They often bury the dead immediately to remove evidence. As to whether he is dead or alive, there are three possible ways of getting some clarity.


•Communication intercepts may well pick up some news from key sources
•Ground intelligence might yield clues, although the government denies it has sources on the ground
•The Taliban may announce his death and could even announce his successor
If he is gone, it will lead to a dramatic re-orientation of his Pakistani Taliban movement, Tehrik Taliban.



Security forces have targeted Baitullah Mehsud's supporters
For a year after his 2004 appointment as the chief commander of the Mehsud tribe by the Taliban's spiritual leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, Mr Mehsud stayed away from the limelight, allowing other local commanders to hog the headlines. In the past few months, he withdrew into the hole again, severing all contact with the press and reducing his mobility to avoid missile strikes from suspected US drones. The most immediate impact would be felt by his Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is now open to all kinds of possibilities. It may be headed by one of his trusted commanders and carry on as before, or it may transform into a more mainstream Taliban organisation with a wider focus.

TTP was formed in December 2007, and marked a watershed in the recent history of militancy in the region. It decisively turned against Pakistan, a move over which both Afghani and Pakistani Taliban had reservations because they believed this would distract the TTP from fighting foreign forces in Afghanistan. But Baitullah Mehsud displayed a remarkable talent for alliance making and was able to extend the TTP's influence to distant areas like Swat, Bajaur, Mohmand, Orakzai and Kurram. This north-eastward extension of jihad into Pakistan - and away from Afghanistan - can be explained in terms of what some analysts call Mr Mehsud's own "locational disadvantage".

The Mehsud tribe, to which he belonged, inhabits the eastern two-thirds of South Waziristan, which means that they do not share the border with Afghanistan and therefore have no direct access to the Taliban movement there. he remote Pakistani region of Waziristan borders Afghanistan
The western parts of South Waziristan, and the entire North Waziristan region are dominated by the Wazir tribe, which controls the border and with which the Mehsuds often have running tribal feuds. Apart from geography, many analysts also credit Mr Mehsud's talent for forging extra-territorial alliances in a land where ideological considerations rarely cut across tribal affinities.

Not only did he manage to become the head of several Taliban groups across the north-west, last year he also forged an out-of-TTP alliance with his rival cousins, the Wazirs, in both South and North Waziristan, led respectively by Commander Mullah Nazir and Commander Hafiz Gul Bahadur. Analysts believe it will be difficult for these groups to treat another Mehsud tribesman with equal respect.

There is already speculation about intra-Mehsud differences over succession, and analysts say commanders from other TTP groups may jump into the fray. Most analysts close to the Pakistani army say these differences are likely to weaken the TTP substantially, and give the army an upper hand in Waziristan region.


Tribal considerations

But there are others who believe the struggle for succession is not likely to undermine the TTP completely. They point out that the Taliban leadership of Afghanistan still remains the major arbiter in settling questions of succession among the Pakistani militant groups.
*MAN IN PITURE HERE IS HAKIMULLAH MEHSOOD THE MOST PROBABLE SUCESSOR OF BAITULLAH.

Recent history suggests that this leadership has often been swift in replacing commanders, and has invariably overcome clan and tribal divisions while doing so, they say. Furthermore, the infrastructure for recruiting, training and handling of suicide bombers, for example, is intact, and it is likely that the group managing this infrastructure may rise to any leadership role that is open.

But it is equally likely that elements sympathetic to the broader Taliban agenda of focusing on Afghanistan come to the fore, giving the Pakistanis a breather.