UK 'may have 40-year Afghan role'

SOURCE-BBC NEWS
The UK's commitment to Afghanistan could last for up to 40 years, the incoming head of the Army has said.

Gen Sir David Richards, who takes over on 28 August, told the Times that "nation-building" would last decades.

Troops will be required for the medium term only, but the UK will continue to play a role in "development, governance [and] security sector reform," he said.

Shadow defence minister Gerald Howarth said the UK had to be there long-term to achieve its objectives.

Gen Richards commanded 35,000 troops from 37 nations when he was head of Nato's International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan between May 2006 and February 2007.

He will take over from Gen Sir Richard Dannatt as the UK's chief of the general staff.

'Campaign winnable'

Gen Richards' comments came as it emerged that three servicemen, from the Parachute Regiment, had been killed north of Lashkar Gah, in Helmand province, southern Afghanistan, on Thursday afternoon.

Their deaths - in an attack on a Jackal armoured vehicle which left a colleague critically injured - take to 195 the number of British troops killed in Afghanistan since 2001.

The Army has suffered its heaviest losses of the entire campaign in recent weeks, but its soon-to-be chief said he strongly believed the campaign was "winnable".

"Demanding, certainly, but winnable," he said.

It is not just reconstruction; jobs and simple governance that works are key

Gen Sir David Richards


Profile: Gen Sir David Richards
He added: "The end will be difficult to define; it won't be neat and clear-cut like the end of some old-fashioned inter-state war might have been."

He said it would take "a long time and considerable investment", adding: "We must remember, though, that we are not trying to turn Afghanistan into Switzerland."

Gen Richards said great efforts must be made to expand the Afghan National Army and build up the police force - only then could the UK's military role "decline".

Equipment

"I believe that the UK will be committed to Afghanistan in some manner - development, governance, security sector reform - for the next 30 to 40 years," he said.

"It is not just reconstruction; jobs and simple governance that works are key, and there has to be a strong reconciliation element to the latter."

For the Tories, Mr Howarth said: "It would not be fair to those who have given their lives for this conflict to say, 'actually, we need to find out how we can scuttle out of here as quickly as possible'."

However, he said the general was not suggesting maintaining the current level of operations for the next 40 years.

Gen Dannatt has called for the government to commit more troops and equipment to Afghanistan, but Gen Richards said he would not be presenting a "shopping list" to ministers.

However, he said the Army and the government needed to "continue to respond flexibly and quickly to the evolving requirements of our campaign in Afghanistan".

Labour MP Mike Gapes, chairman of the Commons foreign affairs committee, said there were "serious questions" to be asked about why other Nato countries were "not pulling their weight".

Mr Gapes asked: "Why are only a few countries taking the major burden of this?

"That is the big issue for the international community - not just for the UK."

BAITULLAHS MEN UNITED NO MORE- ONE OF THE PROBABLE SUCESSOR DEAD.

SOURCE-DAWN.COM
The Pakistani government has received reports that shooting broke out between two rivals for the leadership of the Pakistani Taliban, and one of them may have been killed, the interior minister said on Saturday.
Pakistani news channels were carrying unconfirmed reports that Hakimullah Mehsud, one of the movement's most powerful commanders, had been killed at a shura, or council meeting, held to decide who would succeed slain leader Baitullah Mehsud.

'The infighting was between Wali-ur-Rehman and Hakimullah Mehsud,' Interior Minister Rehman Malik told Reuters.

'We have information that one of them has been killed. Who was killed we will be able to say later after confirming.'

A Taliban official in South Waziristan, where the meeting took place, told Reuters the government had fabricated reports of fighting between the different factions.

Noor Said, who had been a deputy spokesman under Baitullah, said: 'There was no fighting in the shura. Both Wali-ur-Rehman and Hakimullah are safe and sound.'

Western governments with troops in Afghanistan are watching to see if any new Pakistani Taliban leader would shift focus from fighting the Pakistani government and put the movement's weight behind the Afghan insurgency led by Mullah Mohammad Omar.

An intelligence officer in South Waziristan said he had reports that Hakimullah Mehsud died in the shooting after heated exchanges between the rivals at the meeting held around 1030 GMT.

'According to reports Wali-ur-Rehman fired and killed Hakimullah Mehsud,' the official said.

State-run Pakistan Television (PTV) said there were reports that both leaders might have been killed in a shoot-out.

The shura was called in Taliban-controlled territory in Waziristan, a northwest tribal region bordering Afghanistan.

DRONE ATTACK

Earlier in the day Hakimullah Mehsud had telephoned journalists to deny that Baitullah Mehsud had been killed in a missile strike by US drone aircraft on Wednesday.

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said on Friday the government was 'pretty certain' that Mehsud perished in the missile blitz on Wednesday that also killed his second wife, a brother, seven bodyguards and destroyed his car.

Some analysts had anticipated the Pakistani Taliban's leadership would be split over who should become the next chief and the denial aimed to buy time until a new leader was chosen.

Hakimullah, who controls fighters in the Orakzai, Kurram and Khyber tribal regions, is regarded as one of the leading contenders to replace Baitullah Mehsud, who had a $5 million US bounty on his head.

Wali-ur-Rehman is another shura member and a former spokesman for Baitullah.

Qureshi had anticipated the death of Mehsud would leave a void in the Taliban movement that could lead to divisions.

'With him gone, I think there is going to be an internal struggle and disarray in their ranks, I think it will set in demobilisation. It is a great success for the forces that are fighting extremism and terrorism in Pakistan,' Qureshi told BBC radio late on Friday

HOW A SON OF PESH-IMAM BECAME PAKISTANS MOST WANTED MAN-STORY OF BAITULLAH

SOURCE-DAWN.COM
Born in 1972, Baitullah Mehsud had to suffer an early childhood dislocation when he moved, along with his father, from his Nargosha village to Landi Dhok in Bannu, close to the South Waziristan tribal region.

His father served as a Pesh-Imam (prayer leader) in a mosque in Landi Dhok before moving to Miramshah in North Waziristan and there also he led prayers in a mosque. Baitullah got a little religious education in Miramshah’s Pepal Madressah.

And it was in Miramshah where Baitullah is believed to have come into contact with Taliban militants who persuaded him to join them in the fight against the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.He fought well in Afghanistan and established himself as a fighter, a senior security officer, who himself belongs to the Mehsud tribe, recalled.

Baitullah returned to his native South Waziristan after the United States invaded Afghanistan and toppled the Taliban regime in November 2001.

He shot to prominence after the notorious Taliban commander in South Waziristan, Nek Mohammad, was killed in a missile attack in Wana in June 2004. But he keep a low profile when the one-legged former Guantanamo detainee, Abdullah Mehsud, reined supreme in the Mehsud territory.

His real chance to claim leadership came soon after Abdullah kidnapped two Chinese engineers in October 2004. Miffed that the fiery militant commander had picked up an unnecessary fight with Pakistan’s security forces, a shura of the local Taliban removed Abdullah Mehsud and handed over the command of the Taliban in South Waziristan to Baitullah.

Known for his cool-headedness, the military hailed Baitullah’s ascension, called him a soldier of peace and signed the Sara Rogha agreement with him in February 2005.

The peace agreement collapsed in a matter of months, with both sides accusing each other of violating its terms, leading to the beginning of hostilities that took a huge toll.

Baitullah proved himself a tough warrior, taking due advantage of a territory that was native and treacherous, by defeating two successive military operations.

He catapulted to the limelight when he took hundreds of Pakistani soldiers hostage in August 2007. It was perhaps because of this singular feat that militants in the length and breadth of Fata at a 20-member shura meeting chose him as leader of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan in December 2007.

Baitullah unleashed a wave of suicide bombings in Pakistan. Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani once told journalists that the TTP leader was behind almost all attacks inside Pakistan.

According to a UN report, Baitullah was behind 80 per cent of the suicide bombings in Afghanistan.

He gained in stature to the extent that The Time magazine rated him as one of the 100 most influential people in the world. Not to be left behind, The Newsweek described him as more dangerous than Osama bin Laden.

Accounts vary about the actual strength of his force, but intelligence agencies put the number of his fighting force at 20,000 to 30,000, including 2,000 to 3,000 foreign militants, mostly of Central Asian origin – Uzbeks and Chechens.

He ran a number of training camps, including those indoctrinating suicide bombers – a weapon – he once called his own atom bombs.

A short-stocky man, Baitullah suffered from diabetes that once prompted reports of serious illness and then death in late 2008. Much to the disappointment of many, the man bounced back to host a big feast of lamb and rice to celebrate his second marriage to a daughter of the local influential tribal leader, Malik Ikramuddin. He, however, remained issueless.

According to one account, he was also the ghost writer of a book in Urdu, Carvan-i-Baitullah Mehsud, using the pen-name of Abu Munib. In the book, he described his ideology, war strategy and details pertaining to his movement.

The United States had announced a $5 million bounty on Baitullah’s head in March this year. But it took Pakistan several months before making up its mind to declare him as Pakistan’s enemy number one and announce a reward of Rs50 million for his capture, dead or alive, in June.

Trouble began to emerge for the TTP leader when the government announced the launching of a military operation against him in June. No ground offensive was launched and the government changed its tactics to use air strikes and artillery, besides imposing an effective economic blockade to stop fuel and food supply to the area. Thousands of Mehsuds fled the area.

He was under pressure both from within his own Mehsud clan, which wanted him to ease it off with the government, and his commanders who egged him on to fight off the military. For the first time, his decision and thought-making process was shaky, an official familiar with the situation in the area said.

He wouldn’t stay in one place for two months and would constantly change places. His nerves were on edge, he remarked.

It is useless to run away. I know some day, one day they will come and get me, one senior official quoted Baitullah as telling a fellow Mehsud tribesman.

Little did the man, described by a senior security official as someone with fox-like instincts to sense danger, suspect that he was exposing himself to a missile target by relaxing with his younger wife on a roof in Zanghara, South Waziristan

US Assassination Squad revealed

SOURCE: RUSSIA TODAY “Targeted assassinations were part of the [US] ‘Defensive Intervention’ program,” says investigative journalist Wayne Madsen, referring to details of an alleged JSOC Assassination Ring revealed by Pentagon officials. Detail report in the video below.

Where now for Pakistan's Taliban?

SOURCE: BBC NEWS
Baitullah Mehsud, the feared militant commander in Pakistan, appears to have ended his career in much the same way as he had started - by keeping a low profile.

Speculation about whether he is dead or alive is rife across Pakistan - from the mountainous tribal territory of South Waziristan to the capital Islamabad. But the ambiguity surrounding his reported death may well persist. Nobody has as yet been willing or able to confirm his demise. We do know that the missile which struck the remote corner of South Waziristan, Baitullah Mehsud's tribal stronghold, killed one of his wives. But only days later did news trickle out that the Taliban commander may have perished in the attack too.

Rapid response

The Taliban have a strategy of blocking traffic to any area where missiles hit, so that the number of casualties and the identities of the dead remain unknown. They often bury the dead immediately to remove evidence. As to whether he is dead or alive, there are three possible ways of getting some clarity.


•Communication intercepts may well pick up some news from key sources
•Ground intelligence might yield clues, although the government denies it has sources on the ground
•The Taliban may announce his death and could even announce his successor
If he is gone, it will lead to a dramatic re-orientation of his Pakistani Taliban movement, Tehrik Taliban.



Security forces have targeted Baitullah Mehsud's supporters
For a year after his 2004 appointment as the chief commander of the Mehsud tribe by the Taliban's spiritual leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, Mr Mehsud stayed away from the limelight, allowing other local commanders to hog the headlines. In the past few months, he withdrew into the hole again, severing all contact with the press and reducing his mobility to avoid missile strikes from suspected US drones. The most immediate impact would be felt by his Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is now open to all kinds of possibilities. It may be headed by one of his trusted commanders and carry on as before, or it may transform into a more mainstream Taliban organisation with a wider focus.

TTP was formed in December 2007, and marked a watershed in the recent history of militancy in the region. It decisively turned against Pakistan, a move over which both Afghani and Pakistani Taliban had reservations because they believed this would distract the TTP from fighting foreign forces in Afghanistan. But Baitullah Mehsud displayed a remarkable talent for alliance making and was able to extend the TTP's influence to distant areas like Swat, Bajaur, Mohmand, Orakzai and Kurram. This north-eastward extension of jihad into Pakistan - and away from Afghanistan - can be explained in terms of what some analysts call Mr Mehsud's own "locational disadvantage".

The Mehsud tribe, to which he belonged, inhabits the eastern two-thirds of South Waziristan, which means that they do not share the border with Afghanistan and therefore have no direct access to the Taliban movement there. he remote Pakistani region of Waziristan borders Afghanistan
The western parts of South Waziristan, and the entire North Waziristan region are dominated by the Wazir tribe, which controls the border and with which the Mehsuds often have running tribal feuds. Apart from geography, many analysts also credit Mr Mehsud's talent for forging extra-territorial alliances in a land where ideological considerations rarely cut across tribal affinities.

Not only did he manage to become the head of several Taliban groups across the north-west, last year he also forged an out-of-TTP alliance with his rival cousins, the Wazirs, in both South and North Waziristan, led respectively by Commander Mullah Nazir and Commander Hafiz Gul Bahadur. Analysts believe it will be difficult for these groups to treat another Mehsud tribesman with equal respect.

There is already speculation about intra-Mehsud differences over succession, and analysts say commanders from other TTP groups may jump into the fray. Most analysts close to the Pakistani army say these differences are likely to weaken the TTP substantially, and give the army an upper hand in Waziristan region.


Tribal considerations

But there are others who believe the struggle for succession is not likely to undermine the TTP completely. They point out that the Taliban leadership of Afghanistan still remains the major arbiter in settling questions of succession among the Pakistani militant groups.
*MAN IN PITURE HERE IS HAKIMULLAH MEHSOOD THE MOST PROBABLE SUCESSOR OF BAITULLAH.

Recent history suggests that this leadership has often been swift in replacing commanders, and has invariably overcome clan and tribal divisions while doing so, they say. Furthermore, the infrastructure for recruiting, training and handling of suicide bombers, for example, is intact, and it is likely that the group managing this infrastructure may rise to any leadership role that is open.

But it is equally likely that elements sympathetic to the broader Taliban agenda of focusing on Afghanistan come to the fore, giving the Pakistanis a breather.

Hamas rockets 'a war crime'- HRW

SOURCE- ALJAZERA

Rocket attacks carried out against Israel by Hamas and other Palestinian fighters amount to war crimes, according to a Human Rights Watch (HRW) report.

The US-based organisation accused Hamas of endangering civilians in the report published on Thursday.The 31-page dossier examined attacks by Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups since November 2008 that killed three Israeli civilians and severely wounded dozens of others.



"Hamas forces violated the laws of war both by firing rockets deliberately and indiscriminately at Israeli cities and by launching them from populated areas and endangering Gazan civilians," said Iain Levine, HRW's programme director."Under the laws of war, such weapons are indiscriminate ... Hamas should punish those responsible"

Iain Levine, HRW programme director

"Hamas rocket attacks targeting Israeli civilians are unlawful and unjustifiable and amount to war crimes," he said.

The homemade Qassam and Soviet-designed Grad rockets used by Palestinian groups in the Gaza Strip cannot be aimed with any reliability, the report stated.

"Under the laws of war, such weapons are indiscriminate when used against targets in densely populated areas.

"As the governing authority in Gaza, Hamas should publicly renounce rocket attacks on Israeli civilian centres and punish those responsible, including members of its own armed wing," Levine said.


Cross-border attacks

Israel cited persistent rocket fire from Gaza as its reason for launching the 15-day offensive that killed more than 1,400 Palestinians.
HRW noted that in the past it had documented numerous violations of the laws of war by Israeli forces in Gaza, but stressed that "violations by one party to a conflict never justify violations by the other".It said Hamas has "significantly limited rocket attacks in recent months, but has not renounced attacks that deliberately or indiscriminately target civilians - serious violations of the laws of war - or brought to justice those responsible for initiating such attacks."

The Israeli military is conducting 15 criminal probes into troop conduct during its offensive on Gaza earlier in the year in which 1,400 Palestinians died, including allegations children were used as human shields.But the Israeli foreign ministry has said evidence so far showsed troops "pursued legitimate objectives with appropriate precautions," while Hamas committed "grave violations of international law".

Israel and Hamas have both rejected accusations of war crimes

Iran in arms race with Israel

SOURE:ALJAZERA
By Paul Beaver
Iran is one of the world's most significant nations in terms of history, culture and intellectual capacity, and is matched in the Middle East perhaps only by Israel.

It is a small wonder, then, that when Iran's hard-line and irascible president talks of building military capability and destroying Israel, Tel Aviv feels its survival is menaced and that Tehran's regime is its nemesis.

For all of its 61 years in existence, Israel has considered itself in a permanent war of survival. It has developed a national system which places great emphasis on its military and intelligence capabilities.Starting from scratch, Israel has developed technologies which are truly world-leading, especially in the delivery of shock and awe on any potential enemy.

For the early part of its statehood, Israel had shared the support of the United States, as its protector and military hardware supplier, with the Shah's Iran.

When a belligerent Saddam Hussein took power in Iraq, both the Shah and Israel were uneasy and often co-operated in exploiting technology, both US and home-grown in Israel.There is documented evidence that Israel supplied Iran with communications equipment and the supporting paraphernalia needed to allow both countries (and probably the US Central Intelligence Agency) to eavesdrop on Iraq.

The great divide

The Iranian Revolution changed all that and since 1980, Israel and Iran have grown apart. So far apart, in fact, that there is a real risk of armed conflict between the two states.What makes the world sit up and take note is that Israel is a nuclear power with delivery systems which can reach Iran – and Iran is, according to US experts, just two years away from creating a nuclear strike capability of its own.

US experts believe Iran will be able to produce nuclear weapons material in the next few months.

For Jordan, Iraq and Saudi Arabia – and even the Gulf states - this is particularly worrying as any nuclear-tipped missiles would fly overhead no matter who launches them.In addition, Israel has a sophisticated - and tested - anti-missile system called Arrow, which could knock out a potential Iranian first strike. The problem for Israel's neighbours is not the technology but where the debris might fall if the Arrow were ever to be used.

Israel has watched with growing horror as the rhetoric from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, stokes tensions and as Tehran appears to be determined to create a full nuclear weapon capability.Israel has taken steps to improve its nation's defences and its long-range strike capability. There is no doubt that the Israeli military could mount a successful air strike against targets in Iran and certainly that the Jericho series of ballistic missiles could hit targets with great accuracy.

Unwanted scenarios


Ballistic arsenals:
Iran vs Israel
Short range ballistic missiles <1000km
Israel:
Jericho I - 500 km
Iran:
Mushak 120- 130km
Mushak 160- 160km
Mushak 200- 200km
Shahab 1- 300km
Shahab 2- 500km



Medium range ballistic missiles 1000 - 3000km
Israel:
Jericho II: 1500km
Iran:
Shahab3: 1300km
Shahab4: 3000km
Ghadr 101: 2500km
Ghadr 110: 3000km
IRIS: 3000km
KH-55: 2900-3000km

Intermediate-range Ballistic missiles 3000-5500km
Iran:
Shahab: 5500km

Intercontinental-range ballistic missiles > 5500km
Israel:
Jericho III: 4800-6500km
Iran:
Shahab 6: 10,000km

Source: Center for Strategic & International Studies

But it is also clear that any such first strike would provoke clear and rapid hostile reactions around the world, especially from moderate Arab nations with whom Israel seeks accord and co-operation against Iran, as well as by the European Union and others opposed to first strike operations – in favour of a self-defence option.
The Middle East peace process would be indirectly destroyed and Iran's proxies in Lebanon and Gaza would probably enter the fray against Israel.

Israeli interests worldwide could also be threatened.

Iran is not yet in a position to launch a first strike against Israel. This is perhaps a key concern because Israel has a reputation for not allowing a first strike capability to develop.It has a record of destroying the Egyptian ballistic missile industry under Gamal Abdel Nasser, the late Egyptian president; destroying French-built Iraqi nuclear reactors outside Baghdad at Osirak in 1981, and interdicting the supply of arms moving through Sudan as recently as January this year.

Nevertheless, Iran has had a series of short-range ballistic missiles for three decades, having developed them for the 'War of the Cities' during the war with Iraq. Much of the technology was originally bought from Pakistan and later North Korea.There is Russian and Chinese technology extant as well – even technology bought commercially in electronics supermarkets in Japan as a report in Jane's Defence Weekly revealed 15 years ago.

But creating a weapon in sufficient numbers and capability to destroy key targets in Israel is a different matter.Even if Iran had a nuclear device now, it would take some time to 'weaponise' it to create a first strike capability. North Korea is struggling with same problems which leads many to believe there is a union of need between the two otherwise unlikely bedfellows.

Black market technologies



An Israeli strike against Iran could drag in proxies into a wider Middle East conflict [EPA]
Iran's defence industries have created good technologies of their own since the US-inspired arms embargo which followed the cessation of hostilities with Iraq in 1988. Battlefield weapon systems were developed from black market Russian missiles and by some clever adaptations of US technology.For example, Iran's military took medium-range air-to-air missiles (originally exported to Iran in the time of the Shah for the F-14 Tomcat and F-4 Phantom fleets) and reconfigured the guidance systems from air-to-air to air-to-ground.

Israel has also seen Iran, under Ahmadinejad, support both Hezbollah and Hamas. Recent military operations in South Lebanon in 2006 and against Hamas in Gaza in 2009 have witnessed a haul of Iranian-supplied systems.Israel has put extreme diplomatic pressure on Russia about the extent of weapons sales to Iran. The unlikely alliance between Iran and Syria has also contributed to Israel's unease and feeling that it is - like in the early 1960s - surrounded by potential aggressors.Washington's anti-Iran stance under George Bush, the former US president, led to speculation that the US would provide the technology for Israel to launch a conventional bombing raid – or rather series of raids – against Iranian nuclear facilities in known locations near Shiraz and Isfahan.

What to bomb?

The problem for Israel in mounting such operations would not be the technology of reaching the target areas, nor destroying those seen, or even the opposition of neighbours, but actually detecting the right facilities.

Iran, using North Korean advisers, has managed to bury and hide its main facilities. This makes a first strike difficult in military terms while the risk of collateral damage makes it impossible in political terms.Israel has been trying a charm offensive with some moderate Arab states. It has highlighted that the physical and political fallout stemming from Ahmadinejad's more aggressive posture would be damaging for all.Israel's case has not been helped by Operation Cast Lead, the name it gave its offensive against Hamas in Gaza last January.

Ahmadinejad's inauguration for a second term after the disputed elections is another factor. Traditionally, leaders under pressure in hard-line states have used military adventures to divert public opinion.One only has to remember the actions of the Argentine Junta in 1982 when it invaded the Falkland Islands or actions in Northeast Africa over several decades.Military and intelligence organisations look at a nation's potential threat by examining key attributes.These are 'military capability' – could a nation actually carry out a military strike; "political will" – does a nation actually want to expend that much treasure and 'blood'; "an understanding of the consequence" – does the nation's leadership understand where the ripple caused by its casting of a stone into the pool of peace would stop?

Hard-line versus unpredictable



Hard-line and unpredictable stances in Iran and Israel could lead to war, analyst says [EPA]
Taking each nation in turn – Israel has the military capability of a nuclear or non-nuclear strike against Iran and hence the war experience of 1967, 1973 and 1982 to fall back upon.The current government in Tel Aviv is hard-line enough to both take the action and to ride out the political storm.But it is also pragmatic and - despite its inability to understand the West's clear opposition to its housing policies in Jerusalem and the West Bank - guarded in its use of military force on a regional scale.US posture is also a determining factor in any decision to strike. The fate of three US tourists apparently being held by Iran could further bolster the position of US hawks on Iran in the Obama administration.

Iran, on the other hand, is completely unpredictable, especially given the competing power structures within the country.It has a recent history of meddling in the affairs of its neighbours, like the fledgling Iraq, and launched a million men and young boys in human waves against Saddam Hussein's armies dug in along the border in the 1980s.The religious leaders of the time seemed quite happy to allow this wholesale slaughter without any sign of remorse. So the question remains, would Iran's leadership launch a nuclear strike against Israel?Today, it cannot because the technology is not there. Will it at some time in the future if Iran were to ever develop such means?

The rest of the world can only hope that sense prevails in Tehran and the internal situation is resolved in a way that does not 'force' Ahmadinejad to take the 'nuclear option' – not literally, but by creating the conditions for war in order to reinforce his own embattled and increasingly fragile position as leader.

Paul Beaver is an independent defence and security analyst based in London. In his 30 years of commenting on strategic matters he has held senior positions in several organisations, including Jane's Information Group

1,000 US Marine to be deployed at American Embassy in Islamabad

US Marines numbering 1,000 will be deployed at American Embassy in Islamabad under massive expansion work which is nearing completion.Pakistan’s Foreign Office Spokesman Abdul Basit Khan has said that 1,000 US Marines will be coming to Pakistan to be deployed at US Mission.He said that there was no restriction on the number of personnel that a foreign mission could station at its mission but it is done through mutual understanding.
The FO Spokesman stated on Wednesday while replying to a query relating to increase in the strength of the US personnel at Islamabad’s mission, The Nation reported.
A former Pakistan diplomat had objected to the US plans to have a bigger presence in Pakistan in the pursuit of its strategic interests in the region.
Former Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed Khan said that it is evident that America wants to remote control the region from Islamabad. According to an estimate, Washington is planning to spend a whopping one billion dollars for revamping its main embassy building in Islamabad and increase the strength of its staff.
The Obama Administration is about to spend 405 million dollars for the reconstruction and refurbishment of the main embassy building and 111 million dollars for constructing a new complex for 330 personnel. A further 197 million dollars would be spent for construction of a housing unit for about 250 personnel.

Not only this, the United States is also planning to give its consular buildings in Lahore and Peshawar a new look.Experts believe that this is a clear cut strategy of the US to augment its presence and establish control over the region

Artillery Arrives in Afghanistan To Aid French

Paris – A first batch of three Caesar 155mm cannons arrived at Kabul airport Aug. 1, marking a first operational deployment of the truck-mounted artillery, according to the Web site of the French chief of the Defense Staff.

“These artillery pieces are intended to deliver fire support from forward operating bases during operations undertaken by the joint tactical battalion at Kapisa and the French battalion at Surobi,” the Web site posting said
The guns are part of the French Army’s drive to boost firepower in the Afghan theater, as the insurgency has intensified and claimed more lives
A video clip on the Web site showed the Caesar cannons being driven down the ramp of an Antonov 124 transporter and out of the airport to Camp Warehouse, the main NATO base in the capital, where they will be dispatched into the field after a few days. The video was produced by the ECPAD, the Defense Ministry’s audiovisual production A video clip on the Web site showed the Caesar cannons being driven down the ramp of an Antonov 124 transporter and out of the airport to Camp Warehouse, the main NATO base in the capital, where they will be dispatched into the field after a few days. The video was produced by the ECPAD, the Defense Ministry’s audiovisual production arm.
The guns are operated by the 3rd marine artillery regiment, based in Canjuers, southern France. A total eight Caesar 155mm 52-caliber guns, built by Nexter Systems, will be deployed in Afghanistan, boosting the firepower of the French Army, which up to now has had 120mm mortars as its heaviest pieces
On Aug. 1, a French soldier died in an insurgent ambush, bringing the total of French Army fatalities to 29 since deployment in 2001 as part of the NATO-led multinational operation.

Three French Army Tiger attack helicopters arrived in Kabul July 26, also flown in by Antonov, as part the effort to support ground troops.

Anti-Taliban militia raised in Swat to fight Taliban

The militancy-hit people of the Kalagai area of Swat have raised a private militia and eliminated three suspected militants.

The militia was raised after the people of Kalagai, situated some 30kms northwest of here, decided to use force to counter the threat posed by the Taliban.

The leaders of the militia have called upon the government and the security forces to provide them with arms and ammunition so that they may ward off the threat effectively.

A group of journalists, who were taken to the area in Kabal tehsil on Thursday by the security forces, attended a jirga of the militia.

Members of the militia told journalists that they had seized six militants and handed them over to security personnel. The journalists were also shown three bodies, apparently that of militants.

Militiamen claimed that an encounter had taken place early on in the morning in which three militants had died.The militia, having between 250 and 300 volunteers, is headed by Syed Bacha, an elder of Kalagai.

Syed Bacha said the Taliban had misguided the people of Swat in the name of Islam. Initially the people believed, he said, that the Taliban were serious in propagating Islam. That’s why many people supported the militants.However, later on when they realised that the Taliban had made their lives miserable, the people turned against them, he said.

Syed Bacha was of the view that the militants committed atrocities against the people of Swat and also humiliated them. Ultimately the residents were compelled to raise a volunteer force against the militants.He expressed the hope that members of his militia would not have to face the kind of situation faced by Pir Samiullah, who had raised a voice against the Taliban and was killed.

Pir Samiullah was killed in December in a clash with militants, after which his body was dug out from his grave and desecrated.Some of Samiullah’s followers had claimed then that they waited for help from security personnel which never arrived.‘We need arms and ammunition from the government. Once we receive these, we will fight with the militants alongside the security forces,’ said Syed Bacha.

AFP adds: ‘This is the first Lashkar that people have formed in Swat on a self-help basis,’ said Major Suleman Akbar, army commander in Kabal, vowing full cooperation with the militia.

‘We will provide them arms, ammunition, rations and other logistic support,’ he said. ‘Taliban know only the language of guns. We will speak to them in their language now,’ 19-year-old Salman Ahmed, a member of the militia, said.

Commanders say more than 1,800 militants and 166 security personnel have died in the military operation but there is no independent confirmation of the death tolls, and skirmishes in and around Swat have continued

Bargain! Supersonic jet for 5 bucks only

In a shady deal, four Russian supersonic MiG-31 jets have been sold for less than $5 each. The fraud happened at the “Sokol” military plant, not far from Nizhny Novgorod city.
According to the General Prosecutor’s Office, from October 2006 to July 2007 unknown officials from the Federal State Reserve Agency sold four planes MiG-31 from the plant to a false company called Metalsnab, which had no rights to trade arms or military equipment.Each of the planes, sold without engines and armament, was estimated at a price of 153 Russian rubles, or less than $5.

According to prosecutors, the real price of the MiG-31 plane fuselage stands at more than $3 million.At the moment, it is unclear where the planes found their new home, as well as who the swindlers were.

Prosecutors say that the fraud was revealed during a prosecutors’ check at the plant, and by now all materials have been sent to investigators.
Meanwhile, the Sokol plant press service has announced that no planes have disappeared from its premises.
”Sokol has nothing to do with the deal,” said the head of the press service, Igor Chernichenko. “Fuselages are standing in our workshops as they did before.”

PAKISTANS MOST WANTED MAN WANTED NO MORE...

Pakistan's Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud, who led a violent campaign of suicide attacks and assassinations against the Pakistani government, was killed in a US missile strike and his body has been buried, three Pakistani intelligence officials said Friday.

But one of the three said no intelligence agent had actually seen Baitullah Mehsud's body.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said intelligence sources have confirmed Baitullah’s death.

A senior US intelligence official had earlier said there were strong indications that Mehsud was among those killed in Wednesday's attack, but he would not elaborate.

Mehsud had al-Qaeda connections and was suspected in the killing of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Pakistan viewed him as its top internal threat and had been preparing an offensive against him.

For years, the US has considered Mehsud a lesser threat to its interests than some of the other Pakistani Taliban, their Afghan counterparts and al-Qaeda, because most of his attacks were focused inside Pakistan, not against US and Nato troops in Afghanistan.

That view appeared to change in recent months as Mehsud's power grew and concerns mounted that increasing violence in Pakistan could destabilise the country and threaten the entire region.But while Mehsud's death would be a big blow to the Taliban in Pakistan, he has deputies who could take his place. Whether a new leader could wreak as much havoc as Mehsud depends largely on how much pressure the Pakistani military continues to put on the network, especially in the tribal area of South Waziristan.Intelligence officials said Mehsud was killed in a missile strike Wednesday on the home of his father-in-law and that his body was buried in the village of Nardusai in South Waziristan, not far from the site of the strike.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly.One official said he had seen a classified intelligence report stating Mehsud was dead and buried, but that agents had not seen the body as the area was under Taliban control.

Interior Minister Rehman Malik earlier said he could confirm the death of Mehsud's wife but not of the Taliban leader himself, although information pointed in that direction.‘I can confirm to the extent that his wife is dead, and probably one of his brothers, but we do not have any...evidence that he's dead,’ Malik told reporters outside Parliament. But he added: ‘Yes, lot of information is pouring in from that area that he's dead, but I'm unable to confirm unless I have solid evidence.’

A security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said ‘about 70 per cent’ of the information pointed to Mehsud's being dead, but authorities had not yet been able to confirm this. He said authorities had not recovered a body.

Another senior Pakistani intelligence official said phone and other communications intercepts — he would not be more specific — had led authorities to suspect Mehsud was dead, but he also stressed there was no definitive evidence yet.

An American counterterrorism official said the US government was also looking into the reports. The official indicated the United States did not yet have physical evidence — remains — that would prove who died. But he said there are other ways of determining who was killed in the strike. He declined to describe them.

Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak on the matter publicly.

A local tribesman, who also spoke on condition his name not be used, said Mehsud had been at his father-in-law's house being treated for kidney pain, and had been put on a drip by a doctor, when the missile struck. The tribesman claimed he attended the Taliban chief's funeral.

Last year, a doctor for Mehsud announced the militant leader had died of kidney failure, but the reports turned out to be false.In March, the State Department authorized a reward of up to $5 million for the militant chief. And increasingly, American missiles fired by unmanned drones have focused on Mehsud-related targets.

Ridgback armour secrecy deprives British troops of Afghanistan vehicles

Secrecy sounding the armour on new vehicles destined for British troops in Afghanistan is preventing them from being flown into the conflict zone.

The cladding on the Ridgbacks has been classified as so secret that only British transport aircraft are allowed to ferry them to the troops in Helmand province.
As a consequence, the much-needed vehicles have been queuing up in Dubai, with long delays before sufficient UK transport aircraft can be found to take them to Afghanistan.


The four-wheeled Ridgback which is a smaller version of the six-wheeled Mastiff armoured vehicle, was bought from the Americans, partly to replace the Snatch Land Rover. Thirty-seven service personnel have been killed in the Land Rovers, which proved to be no match for the increasingly powerful roadside bombs.


During the time it has taken to deliver the Ridgbacks to Helmand, eight soldiers have been killed from explosions in Helmand. Two of them are known to have been travelling in ageing armoured tracked vehicles.

Under normal arrangements, all previous armoured vehicles bought to provide extra protection for the troops in Helmand have been flown by a mixture of British and civilian chartered aircraft. The most heavily used aircraft have been Russian-made Antonov planes — the giants in the air transport business.However, the new American-designed Ridgbacks have been given a secrecy classification of “UK Eyes only” which automatically bars the use of foreign-owned transport aircraft to carry them to Afghanistan.The RAF has been forced to use only the British-owned C17 Globemaster fleet, consisting of six aircraft, which can take two Ridgbacks at a time. But the Ministry of Defence said the C17s were already working at full stretch, taking all heavy supplies to Afghanistan.At any given time only four out of six C17s are operational, and some of the aircraft have had to be used to complete the final withdrawal of kit and stores from Iraq as part of Operation Brockdale – codename for the pull-out from Basra.
Nine Ridgbacks had been waiting for three weeks in Dubai — the normal stopping-off point for trips to Afghanistan — since they arrived there on July 16. An MoD spokesman said five of the 19-tonne vehicles were now in Afghanistan and the remaining four would be there by Friday.
The vehicles have been used by the Army in Afghanistan since June. A total of 157 have been ordered.
July was the bloodiest month for British forces in Afghanistan since the mission began eight years ago, with 22 soldiers killed and more than 50 wounded in action.
The Ridgback is the British version of the American 4×4 Cougar produced by Force Protection Industries Incorporated in South Carolina. The company also makes the Mastiff.
The vehicle can carry 12 troops and can run on flat tyres at 55mph. It is described as a mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicle. It has a shaped hull and protected cabin made out of composite armour systems. The troops sit on specially armoured seats.
Ridgbacks are armed with a heavy machinegun, a 7.62mm general-purpose machinegun and a grenade-launcher.Fifty more Ridgbacks are expected to arrive at Al-Minhad air base in Dubai in November.Liam Fox, Shadow Defence Secretary, said: “As our troops are being targeted by Taleban roadside bombs, to have these military vehicles parked in the desert doing nothing is a crass betrayal of our Armed Forces’ bravery. If we have trouble moving nine Ridgbacks, how much more trouble are we going to have to move the 50 which will arrive in November?”“This Government needs to ask our allies to help us get these much-needed vehicles into theatre. But because these are classified as ‘UK Eyes only’, so far the Ministry of Defence hasn’t let our coalition partners help us transport the equipment we need to keep our troops safe,” Dr Fox said.He has written to Bob Ainsworth, the Defence Secretary, to ask for clarification on the planned transport of the further Ridgbacks.
Ridgeback
An MoD spokesperson said: “These [the Ridgbacks] vehicles were never destined for use by 19 Light Brigade who do not have enough trained drivers to operate them.
“This is because the vehicles were only delivered to the Army in May, a month after the brigade deployed. They are being shipped in time for the arrival of their successor formation, 11 Light Brigade, which has spent all summer training on the new vehicles,” the MoD said.The spokesperson added: “These are complex pieces of equipment that will operate in an extremely demanding and dangerous environment. We will not put lives at risk by asking soldiers to drive these vehicles without the necessary training.”

Georgia preparing for another war deserted Georgian soldier

A soldier who deserted the Georgian army and has now fled to Russia says US instructors are currently training Georgian soldiers for a war – just as they did before Georgia’s assault last year on South Ossetia. Reddit Eduard Korotkov also spoke about Georgia’s military provocations against Russian peacekeepers prior to the Georgia-South Ossetia conflict, the weapons that the US supplied to Georgia, and Georgians’ shooting of POWs during the conflict.
the video below is the interviev of the deserted soldier by Russia Today news channel.

Chavez criticizes Colombia over weapons claims

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Wednesday blasted accusations that his government supplied Colombian guerrillas with shoulder-fired anti-tank weapons and accused the neighboring country of blackmail.Mr Chavez said he would halt the import of 10,000 cars from Colombia and ban a Colombian energy firm from exploring Venezuela's oil-rich Orinoco region.
Last week, Mr Chavez recalled his envoy from Bogota over accusations Venezuela had provided arms to Colombian rebels.
He is also angry at plans to allow US troops to use Colombian military bases.
The remarks follow a freezing of diplomatic relations between the countries over the weapons issue and over negotiations that could lead to American military bases in Colombia.
Colombia announced last week that three anti-tank weapons seized from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, had been traced to Venezuela.
"What a coincidence that this information comes from Colombia one day after we started to raise our voice against the installation of Yankee bases in Colombian territory," Chavez said at a televised news conference."Of course this is not a coincidence," he said. "This is the government of Colombia trying to blackmail us."
Chavez said that Venezuela feels threatened by the possibility of the United States having military bases in Colombia and that the accusations were designed to discredit him.
"It was a dirty move," he said.
The Venezuelan president said he doubted the authenticity of the weapons that Colombia recovered but left open the possibility that they had been stolen by Colombian guerrillas during an attack on a Venezuela naval outpost in 1995.
Both the Venezuelan and Colombian governments had lists of the weapons reported missing after that attack, which included the same model of anti-tank AT4 weapons now in question, he said.
Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has also said that the guerrillas were trying to buy anti-aircraft missiles.
Chavez responded last week by recalling Venezuela's ambassador to Colombia, as well as most of the embassy's staff.
Tensions between the two countries have been high since March 2008, when Chavez ordered tanks to the border in response to a Colombian attack on FARC bases in Ecuador. More recently, Chavez has severely criticized Uribe for entering into negotiations to allow the United States to open military bases in Colombia.
The United States says it needs the bases because Ecuador has ordered the closing of a U.S. installation there. Chavez accuses the United States of wanting the bases so it can attack Venezuela.
This is not the first time Venezuela has been tied to the FARC, which has been fighting the Colombian government for more than 45 years.
Last fall, the U.S. Treasury Department accused two senior Venezuelan intelligence officials and a former official of providing weapons to the FARC and assisting the rebels with narcotics trafficking.
The United States identified one of the individuals as Hugo Armando Carvajal Barrios, director of Venezuela's Military Intelligence Directorate.
Another individual was identified as Ramon Emilio Rodriguez Chacin, who was Venezuela's minister of interior and justice until September.

Israeli strike on Iran just a matter of time?

RT....Despite all diplomatic efforts the US has undertaken to dissuade Israel from striking Iranian nuclear facilities, the attack now seems virtually inevitable.
In light of Israel’s recent military preparations, it can only be a matter of when.
The recent visit of Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Jerusalem only proved Israel is determined to act, taking “no option” off the table regarding Iran’s nuclear program.


“This is our position. We mean it,” Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, pointing out at the same time that the current priority should be diplomacy.
When it comes to the US mediating role, diplomats appear to have used up their tools.
“Mr. Obama has no new strategic thinking on Iran. He vaguely promises to offer the country the carrot of diplomacy – followed by an empty threat of sanctions down the road if Iran does not comply with US requests. This is precisely the European Union’s approach, which has failed for over six years,” American diplomat John Bolton, former US Ambassador to the UN, wrote in the aftermath of the meeting in The Wall Street Journal. “There is no reason Iran would suddenly now bow to Mr. Obama’s diplomatic efforts, especially after its embarrassing election in June.”
Calling the outcome of Gates’ visit to Israel “polite but inconclusive”, Bolton says, “It will be no surprise if Israel strikes by the year’s end.”
Indeed, recent actions from the Jewish state – including long-range air force maneuvers and the recent movement of Israeli warships and submarines through the Suez Canal – are eloquent enough.
As for Iran, it shows no sign of halting its nuclear ambitions. Rejecting calls to curb its uranium enrichment, it continues to insist the program is for legitimate energy needs. This makes Israel believe that, in just a few months, Tehran will produce enough uranium for a warhead. However, Western intelligence has put that capability several years away.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has put up to 40,000 rockets on the Israeli-Lebanese border and is training its forces to use ground-to-ground missiles capable of hitting Tel Aviv, The Times reports.
“Hezbollah’s rearming is in the name of resistance against Israel. The real reason, however, probably has more to do with its ally Iran. If Israel carries out its threat to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, the main retaliation is likely to come from Hezbollah in Lebanon,” the British newspaper writes in its online edition.
However, Amos Harel from the Israeli online edition of Haaretz.com does not deem a military conflict with Lebanon possible under the current circumstances:
“It will be exceedingly difficult to rally international support for a Third Lebanon War, particularly if it were to erupt over surface-to-air missiles, which are already today deployed in Syria. And if a confrontation erupts between Israel and Iran, Israel is unlikely to ignite a secondary front that would divert resources from the main theater,” Harel believes.
Whether or not Tel Aviv considers the Lebanese option “it could be that Israel is indeed accelerating its preparations for a strike, out of a circumspect reading of the situation and a growing belief that Washington will not come to its aid,” concludes Amos Harel

U.S. eyes Russian submarines off East Coast

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Two Russian attack submarines have been cruising in the Atlantic off the East Coast of the United States, a senior defense official said Wednesday.

Russian attack submarines such as this one have been spotted in the Atlantic Ocean.
Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said their presence is not causing alarms to go off.
"So long as they are operating in international waters, as, frankly, we do around the world, and are behaving in a responsible way, they are certainly free to do so, and it doesn't cause any alarm within this building," he said.
It has been years since Russia operated near the U.S. seaboard, thousands of miles from home ports.
"What's interesting is, they haven't been able to do this in some time, and now they are. It indicates a return to their ability to do this," the senior defense official said.
He viewed the patrol as an example of Russia showing the United States and the world its expeditionary forces, part of a continuing trend. He said the Russians have recently been a partner in anti-piracy operations around the world. And last year the Russian Navy conducted a "tour around the world," pulling into ports throughout Latin America.
In December, a Russian spokesman said that tour demonstrated "Russia's ability to fly its naval flag and ensure protection of its national interests in the world theater."
The Akula-class nuclear-powered submarines, which are normally equipped with surface-loaded cruise missiles and surface-to-air missiles, have stayed in international waters, the source said. These are not the class of submarines that can launch intercontinental nuclear missiles.
The U.S. Navy has the capability to locate, identify and track submarine activity through satellites, ships, aircraft and classified systems.
"NORAD and U.S. Northern Command are aware of Russian submarine activity off the East Coast operating in international waters. We have been monitoring them during transit and recognize the right of all nations to exercise freedom of navigation in international waters according to international law," said Lt. Desmond James of the North American Aerospace Defense Command.
A Russian military spokesman said at a news conference in Moscow that the submarines' activities were "part of the normal process."
Defense officials told The New York Times that one of the Russian submarines was in international waters Tuesday about 200 miles off the coast of the United States. The location of the second was unclear.
U.S. officials downplayed the significance of the submarines operating off the U.S. coast.
"There is no need to overreact," the senior defense official said.
"This is not an issue of concern. It is all consistent with the internationally-recognized principle of freedom of navigation. As long as the vessels do not cross into territorial waters, they are free to navigate any open waters," another official said.
Officials have said this is the naval equivalent to Russian bomber missions close to U.S. and other countries' borders.
"It is Russia again trying to assert its influence and trying to show they have a relevant military," a third defense official sai